A novel causal structure-based framework for comparing a basin-wide water–energy–food–ecology nexus applied to the data-limited Amu Darya and Syr Darya river basins

Abstract. The previous comparative studies on watersheds were mostly based the comparison of dispersive characteristics, which lacked systemicity and causality. We proposed a causal structure-based framework for basin Bayesian network (BN) focus basin-scale water–energy–food–ecology (WEFE) nexus. applied it to Syr Darya River (SDB) Amu (ADB), poor water management caused Aral Sea disaster. causality nexus was effectively compared universality this discussed. In terms changes in nexus, sensitive factor supplied changed from agricultural development during Soviet Union period disputes WEFE after disintegration. water–energy contradiction SDB is more severe than that ADB, partly due higher upstream reservoir interception capacity. It further made winter surplus downstream controversial. Due this, water–food–ecology conflict between countries may escalate turn into long-term chronic problem. Reducing inflow depressions improving planting structure prove beneficial ecology, effect significant. construction reservoirs Panj ADB should be cautious avoid an intense such as SDB's. also necessary promote water-saving drip irrigation strengthen cooperation.